In Josh We Trust: Allen Betting Favourite for NFL MVP After Lights Out Performance
- 08 Sep 2025
- Gambling News
The Buffalo Bills' exciting 41-40 victory over the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night left many with the same thought: perhaps the best game of the 2025 season was played on the opening weekend of the NFL schedule.
An Exciting Journey
Josh Allen, the quarterback for the Bills, put fans on a roller coaster that was full of highs and lows.
With 4:48 remaining in the fourth quarter and down 15 points, many supporters began leaving Highmark Stadium, believing the game was over. Many people were heading to bed or dozing off at home.
With the clock at 0:00, Allen (33/46, 394 yards, 2 TDs) led his team back with two touchdowns, set up Matt Prater for the game-winning 32-yard field goal, and then stepped on the field and gently reprimanded those who had departed earlier.
The only quarterback in the last 35 years to have 250+ total yards and three or more touchdowns in the fourth quarter of a victory is Allen, who had over 250 yards passing in the fourth quarter and three touchdowns. The Bills had a chance with 4:48 remaining in the game.The victory probability tracker on ESPN indicates a 9% likelihood of winning. Allen was just excellent.
“Have some faith next time,” he told NBC.
Allen is now the favorite NFL MVP to bet on.
The Bills had 74.3% of live ML bets and 32.7% of live ML volume at ESPN BET before to their comeback, and their live ML odds reached as high as +2000. Then, on the Ravens' second last possession, running back Derrick Henry was forced to fumble by Bills defensive tackle Ed Oliver.
The oddsmakers believe.Although Allen probably doesn't care much about MVP, we discovered this morning that he made a huge jump in NFL MVP Futures, going from +600 to +350 at Caesars Sportsbook. Lamar Jackson of the Ravens went from +550 to +450, Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs went from +650 to +800, Jordan Love of the Packers went from +1600 to +1200, and Jalen Hurts of the Eagles went from +2000 to +1400.
Henry Covers 167 Yards in Running
Allen's performance was the major news on the sports betting front following NFL Week 1. Allen refused to let the Bills give up in a game where Jackson danced around defenders, rushing for 70 yards and one touchdown and throwing for 209 yards and two touchdowns, while Ravens running back Henry destroyed the Bills defense with 169 yards and two touchdowns.
The same is true for Allen MVP betting at ESPN BET, where Allen is currently the favorite at +375 after starting the weekend tied for second place to win MVP at +600. Joe Burrow is currently in third place (+600 before/after Sunday), while Jackson, who started the day as the favorite at +450, dropped back to +500.
In the Mix: Rodgers
Allen has accumulated the greatest handle since yesterday, surpassing Aaron Rodgers (11.3% of bets, 13.3% of handle) and Henry (5.2% of bets, 11.5% of handle) with 8.1% of MVP bets and 24.4% of handle. To win MVP, Rodgers went from +6000 to +5000, while Henry remained at +7500.
The Ravens running back had better odds going into Sunday than Saquon Barkley, Ja'Marr Chase, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Bijan Robinson, but Henry moved from +1400 to the +700 favorite for Offensive Player of the Year. But since yesterday, Bijan Robinson has had the largest share of the OPOY market (20.8%). At 4.4%, Henry has the ninth-highest handle.
Super Bowl Favorites Now: The Bills
That Bills-Ravens game had a lot of line movement. Following their head-to-head victory on SNF, the Bills went from being co-favorites with Baltimore (both +650 going into Sunday) to being the clear favorites (now +550), according to ESPN BET. After starting Sunday at +1100 (6th best odds), the Packers shot up to fourth best odds (+800) to win the Super Bowl. Green Bay outperformed the Lions (+900 going into Sunday, +1400 currently) and Chiefs (+1000 before/after Sunday).
Since NFL kickoff, Henry, Anytime Touchdown Scorer, Bengals, Moneyline, and Bills, Moneyline were the most popular betting markets, according to FanDuel.
Prominent Line Movements
According to a DraftKings representative, there were several noteworthy line moves following Week 1: the Colts' Super Bowl odds went from +15000 to +10000, the Packers' went from +1200 to +900, and the Dolphins' went from +12000 to +20,000.
“Overall, Week 1 resulted in a modest win for customers, primarily driven by outcomes in the Money Line and Total markets. The Spread market was neutral, with results breaking even,” said Craig Mucklow, Vice President of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook.
“The 2025 season has picked up right where 2024 left off, with favorites continuing their strong run. Every favorite Won on Sunday except for the Patriots, reinforcing the trend that has consistently benefited bettors,” he said. “One standout exception was the Raiders, who entered Week 1 as a popular underdog throughout the offseason. They were the only dog to win outright, and their victory aligned with customer sentiment.
“The key factor of the overall impact was the volume of Unders, 11 games finished under the total with the lowest total on the board, Steelers at Jets, being the lone Over… this helped shift the outcome from what could have been a tremendous start for customers to an above-average opening Sunday.”
